On 02/25/2020 the 10-year U.S. Treasury minus the 1-year U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted (perhaps briefly), which means that the U.S. Treasury short-term rate was higher than the U.S. Treasury long-term rate. Typically, we define inversions as the spread between the 1-year and the 10-year, or the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year (called the 2-10).  An inversion is considered an indication of risk in the bond market, and have preceded recessions in 11 out of 11 of the past recessions, with 2 ‘soft landings’ in the last 70 years.

Click here to read the full blog post by Leon LaBrecque on Forbes.com.

 

View Leon LaBrecque's Forbes contributor profile and other blog posts here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/leonlabrecque/

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Image is Getty from original post on Forbes.com.