On 02/25/2020 the 10-year U.S. Treasury minus the 1-year U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted (perhaps briefly), which means that the U.S. Treasury short-term rate was higher than the U.S. Treasury long-term rate. Typically, we define inversions as the spread between the 1-year and the 10-year, or the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year (called the 2-10). An inversion is considered an indication of risk in the bond market, and have preceded recessions in 11 out of 11 of the past recessions, with 2 ‘soft landings’ in the last 70 years.
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Image is Getty from original post on Forbes.com.