Once again, financial markets experienced heightened volatility last week as a better-than-expected inflation report for November was overshadowed by continued hawkish sentiment from the Fed. Despite strong performances on Monday and Tuesday, by the end of the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.65%, the S&P 500 fell 2.05% and the NASDAQ was lower by 2.70%.1
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in November, after increasing 0.4% in October. Over the last 12 months, the CPI increased 7.1%.2 The Core CPI (ex food and energy) rose 0.2% after rising 0.3% in October. Over the last 12 months, the Core CPI increased 6%.3 The headline and core measures both came in better than expected, while the year-over-year measures were the smallest increases since the period ending December 2021. Shelter costs, which make up one-third of the CPI weighting, continued to escalate, rising 0.6% on the month and now up 7.1% on an annual basis.4
On Wednesday, after four successive 75bps increases in the Fed Funds rate, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided by unanimous vote to hike by 50bps, to a range of 4.25-4.50%. While the 50bps increase met the expectations of the financial markets, Chairman Powell’s comments that “as shown in the Summary of Economic Projections, the median projection for the appropriate level of the Federal Funds rate is 5.1 percent at the end of next year, 1/2 percentage point higher than projected in September”5 clearly disappointed investors and stoked fears of the US economy entering a recession. One of the Federal Reserve’s mandates is price stability, so inflation must decline closer to its target of 2% before interest rates hikes will end.
As always, thank you for your continued confidence in our team.
Asset Management Department
Sequoia Financial Group