Concerns about delayed election results turned into reality, as vote counts continued into the weekend in tight Senate, House and Governor races. Democrats outperformed expectations, keeping their Senate majority, but the House will almost surely flip to Republican control. The financial markets hated the initial uncertainly that came with no clear winner and slumped on Wednesday as results rolled in, or in many cases didn’t. The S&P 500 dropped 2% for the day, while the NASDAQ slipped 2.5%1
But the election proved not to be the biggest newsmaker of the week, as a surprising inflation report helped the NASDAQ to its largest gain since March 20202. The index surged more than 7% Thursday following a CPI release showing 12-month inflation at 7.7% vs market expectations of 7.9%3. The rally helped the market to its best week since June. Markets tend to overreact, and we could be seeing some of that here, but the stock market was desperate for continuing signs that rate hikes are doing their job. Inflation has now dropped four months in a row from a high of 9.1% in June and is now lower than it was in February4. The drop is probably not enough for the Fed to completely change course, but it argues in favor of smaller rate hikes going forward. The next CPI release is scheduled for December 13, the same day as the next Fed meeting (December 13/14). Mark your calendar – that could be an interesting week.
With the election over – sort of – and earnings season basically at an end, the coming week may allow investors to catch their collective breath. The retail sales report will show the health of the consumer heading into the holiday season. And we’ll be watching housing and jobs reports to see how the economy is holding up under the pressure of higher rates.
Finally, a quick note on the drama-filled week in the cryptocurrency markets. Sequoia Financial is not to be confused with Sequoia Capital, an investor in the now-bankrupt FTX Cryptocurrency Exchange5. For more details on that debacle, we direct you to coindesk.com, which does a nice job detailing the FTX downfall.
As always, thank you for your continued confidence in our team.
Asset Management Department
Sequoia Financial Group